Basin: Eastern Pacific — Wallet 2
Mon, 27 Jul 2026 02:48:28 GMT
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL EP072026
8:00 PM Mountain Standard Time, Sunday July 26 2026
Genevieve continues to intensify this afternoon and evening.
Satellite imagery reveals a pronounced, circular, warming eye with a
deep band of convection wrapping around the inner core.
GLM
satellite data shows that lightning has been occurring in the
eastern and northern eyewalls for the last several hours.
Latest
objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 126–142 knots.
The TAFB subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimate is T6.5/127
knots.
Based on these values and latest satellite trends, the current
intensity is increased to 135 knots, and Genevieve is a powerful
Category 4 Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Environmental conditions remain conducive for intensification, with
low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the
track.
Based on these conditions and the various guidance some
additional strengthening is possible, and the peak intensity
forecast has been raised to 140 knots.
Thereafter, hard-to-predict
eyewall replacement cycles could cause intensity fluctuations.
Given
current trends and favorable conditions, the short-term intensity
forecast lies above the model guidance.
In about 2-3 days, Genevieve
is forecast to cross cooler SSTs, encounter drier mid-level air, and
enter a more stable environment.
Thus, gradual to steady weakening
is expected, and the the National Hurricane Center intensity forecast lies near consensus aids
in the extended period.
Genevieve is moving west-northwestward at 300/12 knots.
The storm is
moving along the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over
northern Mexico.
The Hurricane is expected to continue moving
west-northwestward to northwestward as it rounds the southwestern
edge of the aforementioned ridge through the forecast period, with a
slight decrease in forward speed.
The latest the National Hurricane Center track forecast is
very similar to the previous advisory and lies near the HCCA
corrected consensus and Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
Forecast positions and max winds
Init 27/0300z 14.7n 111.2w 135 knots 155 mph
12h 27/1200z 15.7n 112.6w 140 knots 160 mph
24h 28/0000z 16.9n 114.2w 130 knots 150 mph
36h 28/1200z 17.6n 115.7w 120 knots 140 mph
48h 29/0000z 18.1n 117.1w 110 knots 125 mph
60h 29/1200z 18.8n 118.7w 95 knots 110 mph
72h 30/0000z 19.6n 120.5w 85 knots 100 mph
96h 31/0000z 21.2n 125.0w 70 knots 80 mph
120h 01/0000z 22.7n 130.0w 50 knots 60 mph
Forecaster Kelly
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