Basin: Eastern Pacific — Wallet 2
Sun, 26 Jul 2026 20:37:55 GMT
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL EP072026
2:00 PM Mountain Standard Time, Sunday July 26 2026
Genevieve continues to rapidly intensify today.
A symmetric and warm
eye has cleared out over the past few hours, and is surrounded by
very cold cloud tops.
A partial Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass
that became available after the previous advisory showed a
contracting RMW with peak winds of 103 knots, supporting previous
evidence of rapid strengthening.
The 1800 UTC subjective Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB was T6.0/115 knots, and objective
intensity estimates range from 115-122 knots.
Thus, the initial
intensity has been set to 120 knots for this advisory.
The Major Hurricane (Category 3+) is moving toward the west-northwest, or 295/12
knots, along the periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over the
southwestern United States.
Genevieve is forecast to continue on a
northwestward to west-northwestward motion and slow down over the
next several days as the ridge moves eastward.
The latest the National Hurricane Center
official forecast lies very close to the previous forecast, and
remains within the tightly clustered ensemble model track data.
Genevieve is expected to strengthen further over the next 12-24 h as
it remains over very warm sea surface temperatures around 30 C, low
vertical wind shear and strong upper-level divergence.
SHIPS Rapid
Intensification (RI) guidance and DTOPS continue to show the
potential for additional rapid intensification in the short-term,
and the latest the National Hurricane Center official intensity guidance remains near the top
of the intensity model guidance and close to the HCCA corrected
consensus aid.
However, it is still possible that the peak intensity
forecast of 130 knots is conservative, given the favorable environment.
By midweek, Genevieve will begin to encounter cooler sea surface
temperatures, slightly drier mid-level conditions and a more stable
environment, supporting steady weakening.
Genevieve is now forecast
to weaken below Hurricane intensity at day 5.
Forecast positions and max winds
Init 26/2100z 13.9n 110.3w 120 knots 140 mph
12h 27/0600z 14.8n 111.7w 130 knots 150 mph
24h 27/1800z 16.0n 113.4w 130 knots 150 mph
36h 28/0600z 17.0n 114.9w 125 knots 145 mph
48h 28/1800z 17.6n 116.4w 120 knots 140 mph
60h 29/0600z 18.3n 117.8w 105 knots 120 mph
72h 29/1800z 18.9n 119.5w 95 knots 110 mph
96h 30/1800z 20.4n 123.7w 75 knots 85 mph
120h 31/1800z 22.0n 128.7w 55 knots 65 mph
Forecaster Adams/Papin
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