Basin: Eastern Pacific — Wallet 2
Sun, 26 Jul 2026 14:50:23 GMT
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL EP072026
8:00 AM Mountain Standard Time, Sunday July 26 2026
The satellite presentation of Genevieve continues to rapidly improve
this morning.
The ragged eye temperature has warmed to above 0 C and
become more symmetric over the past hour, and cloud tops colder than
-70 C almost completely surround it.
The 12z TAFB subjective Dvorak
intensity estimate was T5.0/90 knots, however, objective intensity
estimates have increased and now range from 93-112 knots.
Based on
these data and the improving satellite presentation, the initial
intensity has been set at 105 knots for this advisory, making Genevieve
a Major Hurricane (Category 3+).
The Major Hurricane (Category 3+) is moving quickly toward the west-northwest
around 14 knots, along the periphery of a strong mid-level ridge
centered over the southwestern United States.
A fast northwestward
to west-northwestward motion will continue today before Genevieve
slows down early this week as the ridge moves eastward and mid-level
troughing develops over southern Mexico.
The latest the National Hurricane Center official
forecast has been nudged slightly to the right over the first 24 h,
and lies within the tightly clustered ensemble model track data.
Genevieve is rapidly intensifying, and has strengthened by 55 knots
over the past 24 h.
Very warm sea surface temperatures, low wind
shear and strong upper-level divergence will continue to support
additional rapid strengthening over the next 24-36 h.
SHIPS Rapid
Intensification (RI) guidance and DTOPS show a high chances of at
least 20 knots of additional strengthening over the next 24 h.
The
latest the National Hurricane Center official intensity lies near the top of the model
guidance and is close to the output of HCCA, but given the favorable
environment, it is possible that this peak intensity forecast is
conservative.
By midweek, Genevieve will begin to encounter cooler
sea surface temperatures, slightly drier mid-level conditions and a
more stable environment, supporting steady weakening.
However,
Genevieve is forecast to remain a Hurricane through day 5.
Forecast positions and max winds
Init 26/1500z 13.4n 109.4w 105 knots 120 mph
12h 27/0000z 14.4n 110.8w 120 knots 140 mph
24h 27/1200z 15.5n 112.5w 130 knots 150 mph
36h 28/0000z 16.6n 114.1w 130 knots 150 mph
48h 28/1200z 17.5n 115.5w 120 knots 140 mph
60h 29/0000z 18.2n 117.0w 110 knots 125 mph
72h 29/1200z 18.7n 118.5w 105 knots 120 mph
96h 30/1200z 20.2n 122.4w 85 knots 100 mph
120h 31/1200z 21.8n 127.3w 65 knots 75 mph
Forecaster Adams/Papin
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