Basin: Eastern Pacific — Wallet 2
Tue, 28 Jul 2026 08:34:20 GMT
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL EP072026
2:00 AM Pacific Daylight Time, Tuesday July 28 2026
Genevieve remains a powerful Major Hurricane (Category 3+), but it is gradually
losing strength.
Although the cyclone is maintaining a distinct 15
n mi diameter eye, deep convection in the eyewall has become a
little less symmetric with some dry slots occasionally evident in
the northwestern quadrant.
The 06Z satellite intensity estimates
range from 105 to 120 knots, and based on that data, the initial
intensity is nudged downward to 120 knots, but this could be a little
generous.
A Synthetic Aperture Radar pass did hint at the
possibility of a secondary eyewall beginning to form, but
unfortunately, there have not been any recent microwave images to
confirm that.
An ASCAT pass from around 04Z was helpful in updating
the initial wind radii.
The Hurricane continues to move northwestward at about 9 knots.
The
track forecast philosophy appears straightforward.
A mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to expand
westward over the next few days, and that should cause Genevieve to
move at a faster pace to the west-northwest later this week and into
the weekend.
The models are in fairly good agreement, and the the National Hurricane Center
forecast lies near the fast side of the guidance envelope, placing
greater weight on the HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions.
Although there could be some fluctuations in Genevieve's strength
in the short term due to the potential of an eyewall replacement
cycle, weakening should be the primary theme during the remainder
of the week due to progressively cooler waters and drier air along
the forecast track.
The the National Hurricane Center intensity forecast lies near the
middle of the guidance envelope, and calls for Genevieve to fall
below Hurricane strength in a few days and become post-tropical
this weekend.
Forecast positions and max winds
Init 28/0900z 17.5n 115.4w 120 knots 140 mph
12h 28/1800z 18.0n 116.5w 110 knots 125 mph
24h 29/0600z 18.6n 118.0w 95 knots 110 mph
36h 29/1800z 19.1n 119.7w 80 knots 90 mph
48h 30/0600z 19.8n 121.8w 70 knots 80 mph
60h 30/1800z 20.5n 124.0w 65 knots 75 mph
72h 31/0600z 21.3n 126.4w 60 knots 70 mph
96h 01/0600z 22.7n 131.5w 50 knots 60 mph
120h 02/0600z 24.5n 137.4w 40 knots 45 mph…post-tropical
Forecaster Cangialosi
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