Basin: Central Pacific — Wallet 1
Sun, 26 Jul 2026 14:48:57 GMT
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time, Sunday July 26 2026
Fausto's structure on satellite imagery continues to slowly lose
organization, with the earlier cloud-filled eye no longer being
observed.
The remaining central dense overcast is also starting to
become more asymmetric, likely due to dry air entrainment as seen
from an earlier AMSR2 pass that showed the inner-core was
significantly eroded on the western side.
The 12 UTC subjective
Dvorak intensity estimates were T4.5/77 knots from both TAFB and PHFO,
though their Data-T numbers are decreasing.
Objective intensity
estimates range from 68 to 82 knots, and the initial intensity is being
lowered to 75 knots for this advisory.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter and NOAA G-IV aircraft are scheduled to investigate the
Hurricane later today, and their data will be beneficial for
refinements to the track and intensity forecast.
The Hurricane continues to move westward at 280/12 knots.
This motion
is expected to continue for the next several days as Fausto remains
steered by a prominent low to mid-level subtropical ridge centered
to its north.
While the upper-level portion of this ridge is
becoming eroded by a mid-ocean trough located north of Hawaii,
Fausto is likely to become more vertically shallow, only being
steered by the low-level flow later on in the forecast.
The latest
track guidance continues to be in good agreement through the next
4-5 days, and the latest the National Hurricane Center track forecast is very close to the
prior one, nearest to the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA)
aid.
On the forecast track, Fausto should pass to the north of the
Hawaiian islands on Tuesday night into Wednesday with the bulk of
the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall remaining north of the
islands.
Dry air entrainment is likely to continue as Fausto moves into an
even drier environment.
This should result in continued slow
weakening over the next 24 to 36 h.
Thereafter, westerly vertical
wind shear begins to increase sharply which will further hasten the
weakening process, even as the storm begins to move over warmer sea
surface temperatures.
By the time Fausto passes north of the
Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a weakening Tropical Storm,
with the deepest convection becoming increasingly displaced from the
low-level center and the strongest winds confined to the northern
side of the circulation.
By the end of the forecast, Fausto will
likely lose convective organization, with it now forecast to become
a remnant low in 120 h.
The the National Hurricane Center intensity forecast is quite similar
to the previous advisory and remains on the higher end of the
guidance envelope.
Now that Fausto is in the Central Pacific, additional information on
Fausto can be found under Central Pacific basin headers beginning
with this advisory, 5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time.
Future tropical cyclone Discussions
will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP1 and WMO header WTPA41
PHFO.
Products will continue to be available on the web at
hurricanes.gov
Key Messages:
1.
Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the vicinity of the
Hawaiian Islands this week.
Although confidence continues to
increase that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain
north of the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to
monitor the progress of Fausto.
2.
Confidence remains high that swells generated by Fausto will
reach the Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing
increasing surf and dangerous rip currents.
Surf is expected to
steadily build westward across the state over the next few days as
Fausto approaches and passes to the north.
Forecast positions and max winds
Init 26/1500z 19.9n 141.1w 75 knots 85 mph
12h 27/0000z 20.1n 143.0w 70 knots 80 mph
24h 27/1200z 20.6n 145.7w 65 knots 75 mph
36h 28/0000z 21.2n 148.4w 60 knots 70 mph
48h 28/1200z 21.7n 151.1w 50 knots 60 mph
60h 29/0000z 22.2n 153.4w 45 knots 50 mph
72h 29/1200z 22.8n 155.7w 40 knots 45 mph
96h 30/1200z 24.0n 160.6w 30 knots 35 mph
120h 31/1200z 25.4n 165.0w 25 knots 30 mph…post-trop/remnt low
Forecaster Papin
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