Basin: Central Pacific — Wallet 1
Wed, 29 Jul 2026 08:36:18 GMT
Tropical Depression Fausto Discussion Number 42
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
11:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time, Tuesday July 28 2026
Fausto has failed to produce significant convection for the past 12
to 15 hours, although a small area of pulsing convection has
persisted in the northeast quadrant over the past several hours.
The
center of Fausto passed a very short distance south of NOAA buoy
51000 a few hours ago.
The buoy reported a peak 1-min wind of 27 knots
and a minimum pressure of 1009 millibars.
Earlier ASCAT and recon data
from the 20Z to 00Z time-frame supported winds in the 35 to 37 knots
range, and showed that these winds were only occurring in the northeast
quadrant between 100-140 n mi from the center.
The latest
subjective Dvorak numbers are 1.5/25 knots from JTWC and 2.5/35 knots from
PHFO.
D-MINT, D-PRINT, and AiDT intensity estimates have dropped to
the 31-32 knots range.
Given that convection has yet to redevelop
since the time of the aforementioned recon and ASCAT data, it is
estimated that winds have likely dropped below tropical-storm-force
by now.
Fausto is being downgraded to a 30-knots Tropical Depression at
this time.
Fausto has been moving west-northwestward with an initial motion
estimate of 290/10 knots.
This general motion is expected to continue
for the next couple of days, as the shallow circulation moves with
the low-level trade wind flow to the south of the subtropical ridge.
The the National Hurricane Center track forecast is basically an update of the previous one,
and lies near the HFIP corrected consensus (HCCA) and simple
consensus (TVCN).
Fausto has reached a wall of 40-knots westerly vertical wind shear as
it traverses through mid-level relative humidity values hovering
near 30 percent.
In these conditions, it will be quite difficult
for Fausto to redevelop enough convection to stay alive as a
tropical cyclone.
Therefore, the the National Hurricane Center forecast now shows Fausto
becoming a post-tropical system within the next 12 h.
Global
models suggest that the remnant low of Fausto will then open up into
a trough in about 36 h, and the the National Hurricane Center forecast shows dissipation just
after that time.
It is possible that Fausto could dissipate sooner
than forecast.
Key Messages:
1.
Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it passes north of
the Hawaiian Islands through Wednesday night.
Although the forecast
indicates that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain
north of the islands, interests across the Hawaiian Islands should
continue to monitor the progress of Fausto.
2.
Surf generated by Fausto is building westward across the Hawaiian
Islands along exposed east-facing shores and will remain dangerous
on Wednesday as Fausto passes north of the islands.
Large surf and
strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions along exposed
shores.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Forecast positions and max winds
Init 29/0900z 23.3n 154.5w 30 knots 35 mph
12h 29/1800z 23.7n 156.3w 30 knots 35 mph…post-trop/remnt low
24h 30/0600z 24.2n 158.7w 25 knots 30 mph…post-trop/remnt low
36h 30/1800z 24.9n 161.3w 25 knots 30 mph…post-trop/remnt low
48h 31/0600z…dissipated
Forecaster Hagen
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