Basin: Central Pacific — Wallet 1
Wed, 29 Jul 2026 02:36:13 GMT
Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 41
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
5:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time, Tuesday July 28 2026
Most of the deep convection associated with Fausto has been sheared
well to the northeast of the low-level center.
Reports from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the storm's maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 35 knots.
The aircraft
observations and earlier ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometer data
show that tropical-storm-force winds are now confined to the
northeastern quadrant of the circulation.
The center of the
cyclone will likely pass very near NOAA data buoy 51000 within the
next few hours, and should provide additional information on the
central pressure which is estimated to have risen to 1006 millibars.
Center fixes from aircraft and satellite indicate that Fausto
continues on a mainly west-northward track with an initial motion
estimate of 285/10 knots.
The steering winds associated with a weak
low-level ridge should result in a continued general
west-northwestward motion for the next couple of days.
The official
track forecast is on the southern side of the guidance envelope and
similar to the previous the National Hurricane Center prediction.
Although Fausto is expected to remain over marginally warm ocean
waters, the atmospheric environment is expected to be highly
unfavorable, and become even less conducive for regeneration during
the period.
Strong upper-level westerlies should result in a
further increase in vertical wind shear, and the system will be
moving through an extremely dry low- to mid-level air mass.
Therefore, continued weakening is likely, and Fausto is expected to
degenerate into a post-tropical remnant low within the next day or
so.
Key Messages:
1.
Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it passes north of
the Hawaiian Islands tonight through Wednesday night.
Although the
current forecast indicates that the strongest winds and heaviest
rainfall will remain north of the islands, interests across the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Fausto.
2.
Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward across
the Hawaiian Islands along exposed east-facing shores through
tonight as Fausto begins to pass north of the islands.
Large surf
and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions along exposed
shores.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
Forecast positions and max winds
Init 29/0300z 23.0n 153.4w 35 knots 40 mph
12h 29/1200z 23.4n 155.1w 30 knots 35 mph
24h 30/0000z 23.9n 157.5w 30 knots 35 mph…post-trop/remnt low
36h 30/1200z 24.4n 160.0w 25 knots 30 mph…post-trop/remnt low
48h 31/0000z 25.2n 162.5w 25 knots 30 mph…post-trop/remnt low
60h 31/1200z…dissipated
Forecaster Pasch
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