Basin: Central Pacific — Wallet 1
Tue, 28 Jul 2026 14:35:35 GMT
Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 39
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
5:00 AM Hawaii Standard Time, Tuesday July 28 2026
Fausto is continuing to weaken due to the effects of 25 knots of
southwesterly vertical wind shear.
The low-level center is exposed
to the southwest of the convective mass, and both scatterometer and
synthetic aperture radar data indicate the circulation is becoming
elongated.
While the Hurricane Hunter aircraft previously in the
storm did not re-sample the maximum winds to the northeast, it did
report that the central pressure had risen to near 1004 millibars.
Based on
this, decreasing satellite intensity estimates, and continuity from
the previous advisory, the initial intensity is reduced to a
possibly generous 50 knots.
The initial motion is now 280/12.
As Fausto weakens, the low-level
ridge to the north should steer the cyclone or its remnants
generally west-northwestward for the next several days as shown by
the track guidance.
The new track forecast is similar to the
previous forecast, but a little slower, and it lies near the
southern edge of the track guidance envelope close to the HFIP
Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Google DeepMind forecasts.
On the
forecast track, Fausto should pass to the north of the Hawaiian
Islands tonight through late Wednesday.
An already hostile environment is forecast to get more hostile, with
the current strong shear over Fausto increasing during the next 72 h
as the cyclone moves into a drier mid-level air mass.
This
combination should cause additional weakening, and all of the
intensity guidance agrees with this.
Fausto is expected to weaken to
a depression by 48 h and then degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h.
After that time, the circulation should weaken to a trough.
The new
intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the previous
forecast.
Key Messages:
1.
Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it approaches the
Hawaiian Islands this week.
Although the current forecast indicates
that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of
the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the
progress of Fausto.
2.
Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward
across Hawaii along exposed east-facing shores through today
as Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands.
Large surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions
along exposed shores.
Please consult products from your local
weather office.
Forecast positions and max winds
Init 28/1500z 21.9n 151.7w 50 knots 60 mph
12h 29/0000z 22.3n 153.4w 45 knots 50 mph
24h 29/1200z 22.7n 155.6w 40 knots 45 mph
36h 30/0000z 23.2n 158.0w 35 knots 40 mph
48h 30/1200z 23.7n 160.6w 30 knots 35 mph
60h 31/0000z 24.4n 163.1w 25 knots 30 mph
72h 31/1200z 25.0n 165.7w 20 knots 25 mph…post-trop/remnt low
96h 01/1200z…dissipated
Forecaster Beven
About The Author
