Basin: Central Pacific — Wallet 1
Mon, 27 Jul 2026 08:46:05 GMT
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
11:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time, Sunday July 26 2026
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Fausto
earlier in the evening mission found a minimum central pressure of
984 millibars and peak 700-millibars flight-level winds of 81 knots in the
northeastern quadrant, supporting an intensity near 75 knots.
However,
a subsequent center fix closer to the advisory time indicated that
the central pressure had risen to 988 millibars.
Combined with the
continued degradation in Fausto's convective structure evident in
satellite imagery, these data support lowering the initial intensity
to 70 knots.
The initial motion estimate is 285/12 knots.
The overall track forecast
philosophy remains unchanged, with a low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge forecast to remain positioned north of Fausto during the next
several days.
This steering pattern should keep the Hurricane moving
generally west to west-northwestward at a similar forward speed
through the middle of the week.
As Fausto steadily weakens and
becomes increasingly shallow, it should become more influenced by
the low-level steering flow.
This could result in subtle track
deviations during the next couple of days.
The the National Hurricane Center guidance is
essentially unchanged from the previous forecast and lies near the
Google DeepMind ensemble mean and multi-model consensus (HCCA).
Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly less
favorable for Fausto during the next couple of days as the Hurricane
moves into a drier mid-level environment over marginal sea surface
temperatures.
Additionally, southwesterly vertical wind shear is
forecast to steadily increase over the next few days.
Simulated
satellite imagery depicts a similar evolution, with the convective
structure eroding over the next day or so.
By the time Fausto moves
north of the Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a weakening
Tropical Storm, with the deepest convection becoming increasingly
displaced from the low-level center and the strongest winds confined
to the northern side of the circulation.
The latest the National Hurricane Center intensity
forecast is little changed from the previous advisory and remains
near the middle to upper portion of the guidance envelope.
Key Messages:
1.
Fausto is expected to continue weakening as it approaches the
vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands this week.
Although the current
forecast indicates that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall
will remain north of the islands, interests across Hawaii should
continue to monitor the progress of Fausto.
2.
Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward
across the state along exposed east-facing shores through Tuesday
as Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands.
Large surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions
along exposed shores.
Please consult products from your local
weather office.
Forecast positions and max winds
Init 27/0900z 20.4n 144.8w 70 knots 80 mph
12h 27/1800z 20.8n 146.8w 70 knots 80 mph
24h 28/0600z 21.5n 149.4w 60 knots 70 mph
36h 28/1800z 22.0n 151.8w 50 knots 60 mph
48h 29/0600z 22.5n 154.1w 45 knots 50 mph
60h 29/1800z 22.8n 156.5w 40 knots 45 mph
72h 30/0600z 23.3n 159.1w 35 knots 40 mph
96h 31/0600z 24.6n 164.0w 30 knots 35 mph…post-trop/remnt low
120h 01/0600z…dissipated
Forecaster Gibbs/Pierce
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