Basin: Central Pacific — Wallet 1
Mon, 27 Jul 2026 02:37:01 GMT
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number 33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP062026
Issued by NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
5:00 PM Hawaii Standard Time, Sunday July 26 2026
Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's overall structure has
changed little during the past several hours.
Despite the dry
surrounding environment, the cyclone has maintained its convective
structure with the low-level circulation now embedded in a central
dense overcast with cloud top temperatures around -75 C.
The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from T4.0/64 knots from
JTWC to T4.5/77 knots from HFO, which generally align with the latest
DMINT and DPRINT intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS.
Based on the
satellite presentation and these intensity estimates, the initial
intensity is held at 75 knots.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Fausto later this evening.
The
reconnaissance data should help further improve confidence in
subsequent track and intensity forecasts.
The initial motion estimate is 280/13 knots.
The overall track forecast
philosophy remains unchanged, with a low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge forecast to remain positioned north of Fausto during the next
several days.
This steering pattern should keep the Hurricane moving
generally west to west-northwestward at a similar forward speed
through the middle of the week.
As Fausto steadily weakens and
becomes increasingly shallow, it should become more influenced by
the low-level steering flow.
This could result in subtle track
deviations during the next couple of days.
The the National Hurricane Center guidance is
essentially unchanged from the previous forecast and lies near the
Google DeepMind ensemble mean.
Environmental conditions are expected to become increasingly less
favorable for Fausto during the next couple of days as the Hurricane
moves into a drier mid-level environment over marginal sea surface
temperatures.
Additionally, southwesterly vertical wind shear is
forecast to steadily increase during the next few days.
Simulated
satellite imagery depicts a similar evolution, with the convective
structure gradually eroding over the next day or so.
By the time
Fausto moves north of the Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a
weakening Tropical Storm, with the deepest convection becoming
increasingly displaced from the low-level center and the strongest
winds confined to the northern side of the circulation.
The latest
the National Hurricane Center intensity forecast is little changed from the previous advisory
and remains near the middle to upper portion of the guidance
envelope.
Key Messages:
1.
Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the vicinity of the
Hawaiian Islands this week.
Although the current forecast indicates
that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of
the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the
progress of Fausto.
2.
Surf generated by Fausto will continue to build westward
across the state along exposed east-facing shores through Tuesday
as Fausto approaches and begins to pass north of the islands.
Large surf and strong currents will lead to dangerous conditions
along exposed shores.
Please consult products from your local
weather office.
Forecast positions and max winds
Init 27/0300z 20.1n 143.7w 75 knots 85 mph
12h 27/1200z 20.5n 145.7w 70 knots 80 mph
24h 28/0000z 21.0n 148.4w 60 knots 70 mph
36h 28/1200z 21.7n 151.0w 50 knots 60 mph
48h 29/0000z 22.1n 153.4w 45 knots 50 mph
60h 29/1200z 22.6n 155.8w 40 knots 45 mph
72h 30/0000z 23.0n 158.1w 35 knots 40 mph
96h 31/0000z 24.1n 163.0w 30 knots 35 mph…post-trop/remnt low
120h 01/0000z…dissipated
Forecaster Gibbs/Pierce
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