Basin: Eastern Pacific — Wallet 2
Sun, 26 Jul 2026 02:35:12 GMT
Hurricane Genevieve Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL EP072026
8:00 PM Mountain Standard Time, Saturday July 25 2026
Inner-core convection continues to wrap around Genevieve's center,
while water vapor imagery shows well-established upper-level
outflow in nearly all quadrants of the storm.
The Dvorak estimate
from TAFB is up to T4.0/65 knots, while the most recent UW-CIMSS ADT,
AiDT, and DPRINT estimates are between 65 and 77 knots.
Based on these
data, Genevieve is upgraded to a 70-knots Hurricane.
Genevieve continues to move west-northwestward (295 degrees) at 13
knots, steered by stronger-than-normal mid-tropospheric ridging that
extends from the southwestern United States down into the western
Caribbean Sea.
This feature will continue to steer Genevieve
west-northwestward or northwestward for the next 5 days, although
the Hurricane's speed may slow down to 7-8 knots in about 3 days when
a mid-level trough develops over southern Mexico.
The track
guidance is very tightly clustered, and the new the National Hurricane Center track forecast
is nearly unchanged from the previous forecast.
Genevieve's strengthening hasn't reached a rapid rate quite yet,
but it might be on the verge of doing so.
The Hurricane will be
simultaneously experiencing a maximum of oceanic heat content and
upper-level divergence over the next 12 hours, along with generally
light shear.
The consensus of SHIPS Rapid Intensification (RI)
guidance and DTOPS guidance is showing a 70-80 percent chance of a
30-knots increase over the next 24 hours, and a 55-80 percent chance
of a 45-knots increase over the next 36 hours.
As a result, the the National Hurricane Center
intensity forecast continues to depict the occurrence of RI, with a
peak of 115 knots shown at 48 hours.
This forecast still lies between
the latest HCCA and Google DeepMind ensemble mean solutions.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin by 60 hours due to a brief
increase in shear, cooler sea surface temperatures, and a drier and
more stable environment.
That said, Genevieve is forecast to remain
a Hurricane through day 5.
Forecast positions and max winds
Init 26/0300z 12.1n 106.7w 70 knots 80 mph
12h 26/1200z 13.0n 108.5w 80 knots 90 mph
24h 27/0000z 14.2n 110.5w 95 knots 110 mph
36h 27/1200z 15.3n 112.2w 110 knots 125 mph
48h 28/0000z 16.5n 113.7w 115 knots 130 mph
60h 28/1200z 17.3n 115.0w 110 knots 125 mph
72h 29/0000z 18.1n 116.4w 105 knots 120 mph
96h 30/0000z 19.3n 119.7w 85 knots 100 mph
120h 31/0000z 20.8n 123.9w 70 knots 80 mph
Forecaster Berg
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